Limping Congress could be a drag on NC-Congress alliance in J&K polls
Listen to this articleLimping Congress could be a drag on NC-Congress alliance in J&K polls
R.C. Ganjoo / S.M.A.KAZMI
Srinagar/Dehradun, Sept 9
With first phase of polling barely ten days’ away for the much awaited assembly elections in the troubled union territory of J&K, the much touted alliance of two major political parties namely National Conference and Congress, the frontrunner for the power is losing steam particularly due to incapability of it’s junior partner Congress in putting up a formidable fight to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the Hindu dominated Jammu region.
While, the BJP with its’ back to the wall following long more than ten years’ of incumbency, resentment amongst majority Hindu population against its’ legislators and ministers, rebellion in its ranks, has been slowly, steadily and surely gaining ground in Jammu region, the Congress party which was supposed to encash on anti-BJP sentiments of the region has completely failed to convey a message that it could be a better alternative to the BJP.
The Congress which has been given 32 seats of Jammu to fight in even unable to finalise it’s candidates for the second phase of elections scheduled to be held on September 25, 2024. Two of its’ leaders namely Raman Bhalla and Yogesh Sawhney who for the past some years raised the banner of Congress party by resorting to protests and demonstration on public issues, are unsure of their own party nominations. On the other hand, the mighty election machine of BJP with all kind of rich resources led by Union Home Minister Amit Shah is on damage control exercise.
The Congress party which was supposed to stop the BJP from reaching double figure mark in Jammu region is itself in disarray and completely unsure of its’ political task. The BJP with its’ local leaders, central ministers and above all Prime Minister Narendra Modi would be carpet bombing J&K with its’ narrative of Hindu nationalism, rise of militancy and against attempts by NC-Congress alliance of bringing back article 370 and 35A, the Congress has become completely bankrupt in exposing the BJP which has been ruling the union territory since 2018 through central rule and earlier sharing power with People’s Democratic Party (PDP) of Mehbooba Mufti. The BJP narrative of creating fear psychosis amongst Hindus against Kashmiri Muslim hegemony is already catching on while Congress has failed to convey a simple message that it was BJP since 2014 which has been responsible for all the happenings within the period including a spike in militancy in Jammu region during past two years.
The BJP is ably supported by its’ central leadership while the Congress leadership is missing in action. After a days’ election tour in which senior party leader and leader of Opposition in Lok Sabha Rahul Gandhi addressed two meetings, one each in Jammu and Kashmir divisions, the party seems to be watching the J&K polls from away. Rahul Gandhi is in USA while his sister who could have enthused party workers and cadres is nowhere to be seen. The list of party’s star campaigners is not yet out. The central Congress party incharge and observers sent over the years are a joke. Most of them including the present general secretary incharge Bharatingh Solanki has no idea about ground realities.
Moreover, the replacement of State Congress President Vikar Rasool with Tariq Ahmed Karra ahead of polls was a false move. Tariq Ahmed Karra is himself fighting elections from Shalteng and would be busy till September 18. He has little knowledge about men and material at his disposal to fight this electoral battle.
Interestingly, the decision of the party high command to shut the door on those senior and probable winning candidates from Democratic Progressive Azad Party of Ghulam Nabi Azad who wanted to return and fight on Congress ticket would also harm the chances of Congress in Chenab valley. The duplicity in accepting those from Azad’s party till last year and no shutting the door for them speaks volumes about lack of clarity. Tara Chand, one of the closet aide of Azad has been made a working President of the party. After the decision of Azad to withdrew from campaigning from health grounds, some of his candidates have withdrawn from contest. But G.M. Saroori ,a Azad Loyalist who won the Inderwal seat in 2014 wanted a Congress nomination but was denied and is contesting as an independent. Most of the candidate of Azad’s party would play spoiler for Congress particularly in closely contested seats in Chenub valley.
The BJP is also trying to encash on the decision to grant Scheduled Tribes status to Paharai people living particularly in Gujjar dominated border districts of Poonch and Rajouri. However, annoyance of Gujjar, Bakarwals with this decision, anti-Muslim narrative of BJP at the national level and NC-Congress alliance would play an important role in the choice of the Muslim voters. Majority of Hindu voters in these two districts are excepted to go the BJP way. BJP has won over Gujjar and other prominent leaders and put them up in fray but it would be interesting to know that the age old tradition of voting on caste lines continues in these areas.
Interestingly, the National Conference (NC) candidates in Jammu region are going to gain from the alliance as it would help stop splitting of Muslim votes but unlikely to help Congress candidates in such seats having a sizeable Hindu population in the given scenario.
It is pertinent to mention here that there are nearly 10.2 lakh Paharis in J&K, according to the State Advisory Board for Development of Pahari Speaking People, based on the 2011 Census. Paharis account for 6.25 lakh population of Poonch and Rajouri districts; the Gujjars and Bakarwals number about 11 lakh. While 35 per cent of the Gujjar-Bakarwal population live in Rajouri-Poonch belt, the rest are spread across the erstwhile state of J&K.
Whosoever eventually wins the race would be stepping into rough terrain, feared to be scattered with hazardous political uncertainties. Elections in JKUT for regional political parties NC ( National Conference) PDP ( Peoples Democratic Party ), PC ( Peoples Conference, Apni Party, and other splinters groups have tightrope walking this time. The National political parties mainly Congress and BJP need pre or post-alliance partners because in all possibilities and probabilities, Kashmir will throw up fractured mandates. Because of the different demography in the Jammu and Kashmir divisions. JK State has been throwing hung verdicts in past. Jammu is predominantly a Hindu region while Kashmir a Muslim- dominated division. While regional parties have been winning seats from Kashmir, the BJP has been successful in the Jammu region in previous assembly elections.
The BJP, in particular, has the least chances with higher stakes, having invested so much, for so long while administrating the UT for ten long years — more than a half of it exclusively. Whereas, NC has already taken the posture of confrontation against the BJP government by declaring that it would challenge Articles 370 and 35A, besides statehood for Jammu and Kashmir when come in power. In its 12-guarantee manifesto, Omar Abdullah Vice President of NC promised 200 units of free electricity, repeal of the Public Safety Act, release of political prisoners, and free education till university level if the party was voted to power. But the option for post-alliance with like-minded political parties is open, he disclosed.
But if the Congress failed to perform in Jammu region and unable to stop BJP in reaching a double figure mark, the political landscape would be wide open with a fractured mandate, National Conference which is fighting on 52 seats would be looking for partners to reach the magic figure of 45 to form a stable government. There are no permanent friends and no permanent enemies in politics.
(R.C.Ganjoo is a veteran journalist who is presently in Kashmir)
